• Jace Sime

D32: A Player From Each Team Worth Rolling the Dice On

Updated: Jul 16, 2021

Summer time is such a hit or miss offseason time. You're either going days without any relative news or you're getting hit with trades, signings, and mini camp reports that are fueling hype trains. As we count down less than 90 days until the 2021 season kickoff, I thought it would be fun to pick the dice up and roll through all 32 NFL teams to see which players are worth taking a chance.


Keep in mind this article is going to feature players that may not necessarily be on your radar but are worth watching over the next couple months as well as players that are more prominent picks but are being undervalued (IMO) based on their current ADP. There's a lot to feature so let the roll commence!



 

1 - ARIZONA CARDINALS

James Connor - RB

Consensus Rank: RB30 ADP: 9.01

When healthy, Conner is an above average RB. Last year, despite having the 32nd ranked run blocking offensive line, Conner still averaged a respectable 4.3ypc. This year, he joins a Cardinals offense that is not only a run first team, but graded out as the 12th best offensive line and a top 10 run blocking line. They had a run block win rate of 72% (7th best in the league) and averaged 4.5 yards per carry to their RB's.


Last year, Drake got 76% of the teams running back work and attributed for 91% of the RB touchdowns. Connor, who was signed to replace Drake, could be a significant fantasy option for owners if he can stay healthy and maintain a similar market share.



 


2 - ATLANTA FALCONS

Russell Gage Jr - WR Consensus Rank: WR48 ADP: 13.02

Julio is officially out of Atlanta. Although this may be to the dismay of Falcons fans, it also bears opportunity for Gage, who's now the solidified #2 option on the team. Last year, Gage had a respectable 72 catches for 782 yards as the teams 3rd option while only accounting for 16% of the WR targets.


This year, he'll have a whole lot more opportunity as Julio is vacating a 20% target share. Although I expect rookie TE Kyle Pitts to eat into that share, even a 5 percent increase for Gage could equivalate to over 1,000 receiving yards. He averaged 9.3 fantasy points a game last season and I expect that number to increase this year. He'll be a sneaky WR3 that has high end WR2 upside.



 


3 - BUFALLO BILLS

Cole Beasley - WR Consensus Rank: WR40 ADP: 12.12

Beasley really came alive after week 6 last year, becoming Josh Allen's primary 2nd look.From weeks 7-16, he averaged 8 targets and 11 fantasy points a game. He ended up finishing the season as the WR28 ahead of names like Amari Cooper, Tee Higgins, and Chase Claypool.


He enters this year as the consensus WR40 and an an ADP of 12.12. With Josh Allen coming off a near MVP season and an upgrade on the outside to Emmanuel Sanders, Beasley is poised to be a slot rocket this year that could provide you with solid WR2 upside for a late round flyer.



 

4 - BALTIMORE RAVENS

Gus Edwards - RB Consensus Rank: RB40 ADP: 10.03

Gus Edwards is a very talented player and at 26 years old, he's still young enough to make a fantasy impact. In 2020, he scored 119.2 fantasy points, as much as Myles Gaskin, despite splitting carries with JK Dobbins, yet Gaskin is the consensus RB22 to Edwards RB40. To touch on the talent, Edwards was the 7th best RB in the NFL in YPC (4.8) and Breakaway Run Rate (6.8%) last year and racked up 724 yards even though he only had 40% of the rush attempt share.


If Dobbins goes down or misses any time this year, Edwards could be a high end RB2 if not an RB1. With a 10th round ADP right between Latavius Murray and Tarik Cohen, he provides way more value and upside then either of the aforementioned.




 

5 - CAROLINA PANTHERS

Robby Anderson - WR Consensus Rank: WR30 ADP: 7.08

Last offseason, Robby Anderson was signed to 2 year, $20 million contract with the Coralina Panthers and reunited with his college coach Matt Rhule. After a disappointing 2019 season in which he had less than 780 receiving yards, he came to life under Rhule's offense, taking in a 34% target share and increasing his yardage total to 1,088 (a 40% increase).


He finished the WR13 in yards and the WR8 in receptions ahead of fellow team mate DJ Moore (WR30), yet Moore is being drafted 4 rounds ahead of Anderson. Robby is a mid round favorite of mine with an 7th round ADP and if you want to use more draft capital early on RB's, he'll provide you a solid WR2 option with an 11 point/game average.




 



6 - CINCINNATI BENGALS

Ja'Marr Chase - WR Consensus Rank: WR25 ADP: 6.04

Rookie Wide Receivers are always a wild card when drafting and I typically advise people to stay away from them, however, Chase is a special prospect. The Bengals had an offensive line need and could've taken Sewell (the best OL prospect in the last 5 years), but instead passed to take Chase at 5 overall.


He reunites with his college QB Joe Burrow and will likely be the #2 option on a high powered passing offense. Last time him and burrow played together, Chase racked up 1,780 yards and 20 TD's with a catch rate of 75%. I believe the existing chemistry will help expedite Chase's NFL integration and I see him having a significant role on this team and subsequent fantasy impact. As of now, Chase is being drafted behind both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he finishes ahead of both by the end of the year.




 



7 - CLEVELAND BROWNS

Austin Hooper - TE Consensus Rank: TE18 ADP: 14.01

In 2020, only 4 teams targeted the TE 30% of the time or more and Cleveland was one of them. David Njoku was a failed experiment and the Browns proved that when they signed Austin Hooper and made him (at the time), the highest paid TE in the league. Hooper was eased in to the offense and ended up finishing with a target share of 18.9% (the 7th highest rate among TE's in the league).


Towards the back end of the season, we really saw his involvement take a step forward. Weeks 15-17, Hooper averaged 8.6 targets a game, hauling in 149 yards and 2 TD's. All 3 of those games he finished a top 10 TE and averaged 12 points per game. His increased involvement plus year 2 of Stefanski's offense means Hooper could be an absolute steal in the 14th round.




 



8 - CHICAGO BEARS

Cole Kmet - TE Consensus Rank: TE25 ADP: 14.04

I did a write up on Kmet for my TE sleeper segment and didn't want to beat a dead horse, but looking over the Bears roster, I can't think of a better player on the team to feature here. He was heavily involved in the offense from week 11 on, averaging over 5 targets a game and almost 9 yards per target with a true catch rate of 93%, among the best in the league. With the opportunity share increase I expect to happen this year, as well as not having Trubisky anymore (who had the lowest catchable pass % in the league), I'm predicting Kmet to emerge as both a sleeper and a breakout player. Well worth your final pick in most drafts.



 


9 - DALLAS COWBOYS

Amari Cooper - WR Consensus Rank: WR11 ADP: 4.09

I know what you're thinking right now..."What the hell is Amari Cooper doing on this list? He's not a dice roll". Well, based on his ADP and the players going ahead of him, I think he's being very undervalued and that you can roll the dice on him being your WR1. Let me elaborate. Right now Cooper is being drafted at 4.09 alongside Golladay, Woods, and Lamb. That puts him in mid to upper WR2 territory but does he belong in that company? Last year, when Dak was healthy, Amari was the WR7 with 87.1 points averaging 14.1 points a game. He was on pace to finish the year with 235 fantasy points which would've finished as the WR5 behind Calvin Ridley and ahead of Deandre Hopkins, Justin Jefferson, and DK Metcalf. Cooper is very talented and if Dak stays on the field, Cooper could very well yield 1st or 2nd round fantasy value making him a steal, and a dice roll, if you go triple RB and take Cooper as your WR1.

 


10 - DENVER BRONCOS

Javonte Williams - RB Consensus Rank: RB37 ADP: 6.12

Javonte Williams is an absolute beast and was a steal of a pick in the early 2nd round. He showed significant improvement each year at North Carolina and in his 2020 season, he amassed 1,140 yards at an astonishing 7.3 yards per carry. He joins a Denver offense alongside Melvin Gordon that has significant talent at WR to help open up the running game which should lead to plenty of opportunity for Williams. It shouldn't take long for him to overtake Gordon as the lead back and with an ADP of 8.04, he's a solid mid round pick that could end up being a solid startable asset.



 



11 - DETROIT LIONS

Tyrell Williams - WR Consensus Rank: WR59 ADP: 17.10

Tyrell Williams has done the team tour the past few years going from the Chargers to the Raiders and now with the Lions. He opted out in 2020 but in 2019, he was the Raiders leading option and was a very respectable down field threat, notching 15.5 yards per reception and was the #2 overall WR in contested catches with a win rate of almost 70%.


This year, he returns to being the number 2 option on a team, which he was more efficient at in the past. In San Diego, he had a catch rate of 87%, a 13% increase over his 2019 rate with Oakland despite having a 12% decrease in catchable throw rate.


With Hockenson posing a threat in the middle of the field and Perriman drawing the better corner, Williams could be in a position to revive his career in Detroit. I could see him delivering similar results as Marvin Jones did which means he's a viable WR3, if not a low end WR2.



 



12 - GREEN BAY PACKERS

Robert Tonyan - TE Consensus Rank: TE10 ADP: 9.10

Looking at the TE landscape this year, one of the bigger headscratchers I've come across is Robert Tonyan being the consensus TE10 and not going until the 9th round. Last year, he was one of the most consistent Tight Ends for fantasy owners, averaging 9.4 points per game and putting up 6 games in the top 5 at the position.


He has the best hands at the position with a mind boggling 98.1% true catch rate (filtering out uncatchable passes) and caught more TD's than any other TE with 11 on the year. He finished as the TE3 last year and with an ADP of 9.10, he's being drafted in between Jarvis Landry and Curtis Samuel. By all metrics and logic, Tonyan should be going ahead of Hockenson, Pitts, and Andrews in my opinion.



 




13 - HOUSTON TEXANS

Brandin Cooks - WR Consensus Rank: WR26 ADP: 8.09

The Texans were the team I was least looking forward to on this list because the entire organization is just on fire at the moment and they're the consensus for the #1 pick next year. That being said, there's still a player that stands out as a considerable value and that's Brandon Cooks.


The jury is still out on Watson and there's a chance he's only suspended for a handful of games this year. Even if he's not, Cooks is not only the lead receiver on the team, he's really the only one. He was already getting 23% of the target share and with Fuller departing, that will clear up another 20%. Who else are they going to throw to this year? Randall Cobb? I'm not expecting Cooks to put up 1,143 yards and 12.8 points a game like he did last year but I wouldn't be surprised if his volume alone sneaks him into the top 20 WR's this year.




 



14 - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Carson Wentz - QB Consensus Rank: QB14 ADP: 12.09

The North Dakota Prodigy that seems to have gone from Hero to Zero now finds himself in a new home and along with that, falling in consensus QB rankings. There's no doubt that Wentz was bad for fantasy last year but honestly, the entire Eagles team was horrible.


Carson now finds himself on a better team with a better coach and one of the best lines in football. People are quick to forget that it in 2019, Wentz still finished a top 10 QB for fantasy, threw for over 4,000 yards and was a top 5 QB in passing TD's. I have a lot more confidence in his chances of succeeding in this offense than I did in Philly and I think, with an ADP in the 12th round, he is definitely worth a roll of the dice to see if the magic returns.



 



15 - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - RB Consensus Rank: RB15 ADP: 3.02

Like Amari Cooper, this is another player that may make you wonder how this is considered a dice roll and, like Cooper, it's because of Clyde's undervalued ADP. A lot of people were disappointed with him last year and I don't think it's because he was bad, but I think everyone's expectations were a tad too high.


Clyde missed 3 games last season yet still managed to break 1,100 scrimmage yards and notched 35 receptions in the process. Had he not missed time, he was on pace to finish with 1,358 scrimmage yards which would've put him right in between Ezekiel Elliott and Aaron Jones. There's a case to be made that he could finish a top 3 back this year and if he does, that 3rd round pick probably won you a championship.




 

16- LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Bryan Edwards - WR Consensus Rank: WR85 ADP: 16.11

Edwards enters the 2021 season in a prime position to cement himself as the top receiving option on this team. The 2020 3rd round pick was drafted as a downfield threat that averaged 12 yards per reception in college. His rookie season was very underwhelming as he was fighting injuries and underutilized in an offense that focused on Agholor, Jacobs, and first round pick Henry Ruggs III.

Edwards started to see a little more volume towards the end of the year and capped week 17 with a 13 point fantasy performance. Although he only averaged 2 targets a game last year, he had an astonishing true catch rate of 91.7% and averaged 14.7 yards per catch. Carr's QBR when targeting Edwards was 137.5, a top 5 WR in that metric.

Going into 2021, the Raiders have let Agholor walk and Edwards inserts himself as the #2 option across from an aging and injury prone John Brown. He has the perfect physicality and skillset to compliment Ruggs and, should he see even half of the 16% target share Agholor left behind, he could be a sneaky late round pick.


 



17 - LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Mike Williams - WR Consensus Rank: WR45 ADP: 10.08

Mike Williams was a very boom or bust player last year but he flashed enough talent for me to believe that, with Herbert entering his second season, Williams could be an incredible sleeper pick. Although he only had 756 receiving yards last year, he was targeted almost 7 times a game and had 660 unrealized yards (the number of yards that he missed due to uncatchable passes being thrown to him). If Herbert can fine tune his accuracy this year (he finished the QB25 in that category) than we can see a lot of this unrealized potential come to fruition and Mike Williams can be a formidable WR2 to have on your roster.


With an ADP in the 10th round, you're picking between him and backup RB's or flyer TE's and I think Williams chances of benefiting your team are a lot higher than the latter.




 



18 - LOS ANGELES RAMS

Tyler Higbee - TE Consensus Rank: TE9 ADP: 10.09

Last year, the Rams were among the top third of teams that targeted the TE with a target rate of 22%. Not only does Higbee have a significant upgrade at QB in Matt Stafford, but we also saw the departure of Gerald Everett to the division rival Seahawks. Everett leaves behind an 11.8% target share and without anyone else threatening the position, Higbee should benefit from most of those. Speaking of targets, Matt Stafford feeds his TE's 18% of snaps, the 10th most among active QB's. Last year, Higbee put up 522 yards on 60 targets (8.7 p/t). If he gets just half of Everetts 64 vacated targets, he could be looking at an 800 yard campaign (more than Mark Andrews, TJ Hockenson, and Robert Tonyan had last season).




 


19 - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Laviska Shenault Jr - WR Consensus Rank: WR43 ADP: 9.12

Shenault didn't blow any doors off as a rookie last year. He only notched 600 yards through the air throughout 14 games, however, he really started to come alive in the back third of the season. In his last five games, his target percent went from 4.8 to 7.6 targets a game and he scored 5 of the 6 TD's he had all year in that stretch. This includes an impressive week 17 matchup against a stout Colts Defense in which he put up 68 yards and 2 TD's making him the WR10 on the week.

The last 5 weeks aside, Shenault played with a putrid offense that earned the team the #1 overall pick in the draft. Both Minshew and Glennon were in the bottom 20% of QB's in terms of accuracy and catchable pass rate which doesn't help Shenault in the slightest. The flashes we saw towards the end of the year and the massive upgrade at QB in Trevor Lawrence has LSJ poised to be in position for a big sophomore season.

 


20 - MIAMI DOLPHINS

Will Fuller V - WR Consensus Rank: WR39 ADP: 8.04

Will Fuller is an athletic freak. He soaked up the targets in Houston last season with Watson but this year finds himself on the move and lands in Miami where he will be the number 1 option on the team. He has a downgrade in QB but there's no looking past what he's capable of. Everyone thinks of Tyreek Hill as the speedy downfield threat but Fuller was the #1 wide receiver last year in yards per target with 11.8 ypt.


Despite missing 5 games, he still finished as the WR11 in fantasy points per game with 17.2 and the WR28 overall. To top that off, he averaged 80 yards and 7 targets per game with a TD rate of 14.8% per touch. He's the consensus WR39 going in the mid 8th round and if he clicks with Tua after his week 1 suspension, you could see him on a lot of championship rosters.

 


21 - MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Irv Smith Jr - TE Consensus Rank: TE12 ADP: 10.05


Smith is another one of those players that started to flash in the back half of the season and has us all primed for what could be a brekaout campaign in 2021. In the last 6 games he played, he went from 2 targets a game to 4.8 and racked up 3 top 3 finishes at the position for fantasy. He had an impressive 81.4% true catch rate and to add to his resume, Kirk Cousins had an astonishing QB rating of 134.4 when targeting Smith, the second highest QBR:TE ratio in the league.

With the departure of Kyle Rudolph, there's now a 10% market share and 334 yards to be split and nobody else to compete with Smith at the position. The fact that the Vikings let Rudolph walk his way to New York tells me they're confident in Smith's abilities and if he can take on the sole target load at the TE position, he's in position to have a 650-750 yard campaign this year (a finish that would've been among Mark Andrews, Noah Fant, and TJ Hockenson last year).




 

22 - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Nelson Agholor - WR Consensus Rank: WR51 ADP: 11.09

I actually really wanted to feature Damien Harris here, but I already did a big write up on why I think he's a sleeper candidate this year in my Sleepers article so I'm pivoting to the WR spot and highlighting Nelson Agholor. Agholor was very underated last year and still is going into 2021. He arrives as the consensus WR51 despite averaging 11.2 points per game last year and finishing the WR29. With only having a measly 15% of the teams total target share, Agholor still managed to score 41% of the teams WR fantasy points and 28.4% of the teams total TD's. He had more receiving yards than Chase Claypool and Chris Godwin and barely finished behind Diontae Johnson and Tee Higgins, yet all of those aforementioned players are going several rounds ahead of Agholor. I'm not the only one seeing the talent either, as the Patriots were quick to grab him, signing him on the first day of free agency to a whopping $12m/year contract.


With 4,500 yard college passer in Mac Jones coming to town and posssibly supplanting Newton as the starting QB, I can start to see the peices falling in to place in which Agholor could be a target machine and sneak himself into the top tier WR's in fantasy.



 

23- NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Jameis WInston - QB Consensus Rank: QB13 ADP: 15.04

Jameis Winston enters this year as the projected QB13 and an ADP in the 15th round of most drafts. I think it's important we take a step back and realize exactly what Jameis means to fantasy. Is he a reckless gunslinger who throws a lot of interceptions? Yes, but he's also a reckless gunslinger who throws for a LOT of yards and TD's as well. Putting last season aside as he mainly sat behind Taysom Hill, I want to take a closer look at 2019. So just a year and a half ago, Winston finished as the QB3 in fantasy, averaging 23 points per game for managers. He was one of the most common players on championship rosters and elevated players like Breshad Perriman to fantasy relevance. He was the QB1 in passing yards, the QB8 in rushing yards, and the QB2 in total passing TD's. He has the ability and the opportunity to be a top 10 fantasy QB and I firmly believe the Saints will commit to him as their starter this year as they just inked him to a new contract and saw the circus of mediocrity that Taysom Hill brought to the table last year.


Sean Payton loves his offense and his gunslingers and WInston fits that mold perfectly. If you can snag him in the 15th round, you could end up with a QB that you ride all the way to the playoffs and beyond.




 


24- NEW YORK GIANTS

Kenny Golladay - WR Consensus Rank: WR17 ADP: 5.04

Coming in as the consensus WR17 with an ADP in the 5th round, my boy Kenny G is getting super disrespected this year! It's incredible the impact that recency bias can have on us when entering a draft because we're talking about a guy that finished as the WR3 just a year and half ago and now he's being swept under the rug despite moving to a (IMO) better offense and being handed a bag of money that all but confirms he'll be the focal point of the passing game. Last year Golladay battled injuries, had contract disputes, and was just on a putrid offense that was struggling to keep themselves relevant.


The year before, however, Kenny G was the WR3 in standard and WR6 in half PPR, averaging 13.5 points a game and earned a consistency rating of 63% (rate at which he exceeded his benchmark projections). He was the WR4 in yards per target and the WR1 in total TD's with a TD per Touch rate of 16.8%! He's incredibly talented and as I mentioned, the Giants just made him the 6th highest paid WR in the NFL. They're going to utilize him and, with their subpar defense that ranked 26th in the league, they'll be playing from behind often. We all saw the fantasy rewards that came out of Dallas in that scenario last year.



 

25- NEW YORK JETS

Michael Carter - RB Consensus Rank: RB32 ADP: 9.04

Carter is in a prime position to deliver fantasy value this year because he has a clear path to opportunity that most rookie RB's don't get. He enters his rookie season on a New York Giants squad that has nobody outside of Tevin Coleman to compete for touches and with an efficiency ratio so bad (1.9ypc) last year he didn't even rank among the top 50 RB's in the league, I don't think there'll be much of a competition for the starting spot outside of training camp.

Once the opportunity is locked in, Carter has all the talent to deliver and be a fantasy stud for owners. In each of his 4 seasons with NC, he got progressively better despite behing the #2 behind Javonte Williams. His freshman year, he only notched 559 rushing yards but last year he cleared 1,200 (again as the #2 RB on the team and only seeing an 8.4% share of the offensive touches).


He's a dynamic back that I feel has a clear path ahead of him to be a high end RB2, if not a low end RB1. At the end of the day, he's a rookie so it might not pan out this year, but hey, this is an article about dice rolls and compared to the other RB options in the 9th round, Carter is worth the roll.



 


26- PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Miles Sanders - RB Consensus Rank: RB24 ADP: 4.03

Sanders has been on a lot of analysts bust radars and comes in as the consensus RB24 in expert rankings with an early 4th round ADP. This is surprising really for someone who battled injuries off and on throughout the year and still finished ahead of his current ADP at RB22.

On top of the injury issues, it's important to remember that Sanders was only in his second season and had shown significant improvement from his rookie year, increasing his YPC from 4.1 in 2019 (RB26) to 4.7 in 2020 (RB11). Last year, Sanders was the RB7 in both receiving yards (509) and yards per touch (5.8) so he's being heavily utilized in the passing game which is a key factor in a top tier RB.


A big argument against Sanders is the transition to rookie QB Jalen Hurts in the back half o the season, however, in the last 9 games he really only had 2 bad weeks. During that window, he averaged 11.7 points per game in half PPR and finished the RB11. Someone who improved in his second year and finished out a top 15 RB is quite a steal in the 4th round and if you can get that kind of production in the 4th round while clearing up your first 3 picks, that's an incredible value and I'd roll the dice on that any day.




 


27- PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Ben Roethlisberger - QB Consensus Rank: QB24 ADP: 15.09

If you're looking to take a flyer on QB at the end of the draft or are in a Superflex/2QB league, Big Ben should be available. He is the consensus QB24 with an ADP of 15.09. He must have been pretty awful last year to be an end of draft guy behind the likes of Tua, Carson Wentz, and Daniel Jones....except he wasn't awful, he was actually pretty good for fantasy owners.

Despite being old, hobbled, and playing behind one of the worst lines in the league, Roethlisberger still threw for 3804 yards and 33 TD's. He had 5 top 11 fantasy finishes, averaged 18.7 points per game, finishing the year as the QB14. He was the QB3 in passing attempts, the QB9 in Red Zone attempts and Passing Yards, and was the 6th most accurate QB with a completion rate of 83.6%. In fact, if anyone is to blame for any poor weeks you got from Ben last year, put it on his receiving core, as Roethlisberger had the 3rd most dropped catchable passes in the league with 129! He finished the year with a QBR of 60.9, but when you filter out the passes his WR's dropped, his QBR jumps up to 102.8!

Big Ben proved to me on the stat and metric sheet that he still has the skill set to get it done and if his core of wideouts can step up this year and clean up their dropped passes, Ben could have another 4,500 yard season and deliver you a ton of value for a last round pick.



 

28- SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

Trey Sermon - RB Consensus Rank: RB49 ADP: 8.10

It's no mystery that the 49ers have been plagued by injuries over the last few seasons. Between Garropolo, Mostert, Aiyuk, Kittle, and Deebo, they just haven't been able to keep their starting roster healthy over a consistent amount of time. This year they decided to address the RB issue in the 3rd round when they took Oklahoma standout Trey Sermon.

Sermon is an impressive talent that finds himself under one of the best offensive minds in the league and backing up a player who missed 8 games a season to injury in 2017, 2018, and 2020. This puts Sermon in a prime position to showcase his talent if (and most likely when) Mostert finds himself out of the game.

In 2020, Sermon was exceptional at the position, running for 870 yards in only 8 games. He averaged 108.8 yards per game and an impressive 7.5 yards per carry. He's an explosive RB and if he sees the opportunity to take over the backfield this year, you're going to be very pleased with the value you got out of an 8th round pick.

 

29- Seattle Seahawks

Gerald Everett - TE Consensus Rank: TE20 ADP: 15.12

One of my favorite late round picks and a top flyer target for the position is Gerald Everett. He found himself a new home in Seattle this offseason and atop the depth chart in a high powered and proven offensive system. The move is great for Everett as last year he had to compete far targets with Tyler Higbee while only having catchable targets on 72% of his looks (The TE32 in that regard) and only averaging 3 targets a game. In lieu of those challenges, he was incredibly efficient in his athleticism. He averaged 2 yards of seperation per target (TE6), had a true pass catch rate of 93.2% (TE5), and a perfect 100% contested catch rate (TE1).

In 2019, before sustaining an injuries that have since diminished his play abilities, Will Dissley was atop Seattle's depth chart and was the TE4 averaging almost 5 targets, 55 yards, and a TD per game. The Seahawks had a solid game plan involving the TE and were rolling with it unil a torn achillies took Dissley out for the season. Last year, Dissley returned but his form, unfortunately, did not. His target share dropped from 14.9% in 2019 to 5.2% in 2020, which in turn saw a reduction in his fantasy points per game from 12.1 to 4.2.

The Seahawks clearly see a need at the position and want to get the TE more involved as they immediately pursued Everett during free agency and signed him to a deal worth $7m, similar to Darren Wallers contract (oh, and fully guaranteed $6m of it).

If the Seawaks return to their 2019 TE usage and Everett puts his talents on display with Russ, you very well could find yourself holding a top 10 TE on your roster that you were able to get at the end of your draft and I'd say that's worth every bit of the dice roll.



 

30- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Antonio Brown - WR Consensus Rank: WR34 ADP: 10.12

A once mighty fantasy option has seen his fair share of struggles off and on the field since departing the Steelers in 2019. A receiver that was once a locked in first round pick every year has now seen his ADP tank to an embarrassing 10.12...but is he being overlooked and undervalued? After signing with the Buccaneers and returning to the NFL field for the first time since week 2 of 2019, the Bucs were quick to get Brown involved. He was given 19% of the teams total target share despite being on a talent crowded roster, averaged a very healthy 7.4 targets per game, and proved he still had hands with a true catch rate of 95.7% (WR5).


Although he was very involved, he still had plenty of rust to shake off. He was the dismal WR55 in his first 6 starts as a Buc and didn't see a single TD through that stretch. The last 3 games of the season, however, Brown finally found his form. Weeks 15-17, he was the WR3, averaging 20.1 fantasy points a game in half PPR and notched a very impressive performance to finish out the season with 138 yards and 2 TD's in the week 17 game.

Going in to year 2 with a team that kept all it's peices, is giving Brown the highest target share among it's receiver core, and also has a 2nd year Brady...Brown is in a prime position to see a reemergance.



 

31- Tennessee Titans

Julio Jones - WR Consensus Rank: WR16 ADP: 4.04

It can be difficult to take a shot on an aging receiver switching teams and offenses, especially when it comes with the price of a 4th round pick, however, Julio Jones is no average receiver and I still think he has enough in the tank to prove himself a formidable WR1 for any fantasy roster. Matt Ryan is nearing the end of his career and that was plain to see when he targeted Julio on 20% of his throws yet only threw catchable passes 75% of the time. Despite being the WR43 in catchable targets, Julio still finished as the WR12 in catch rate at 75% and WR7 in true catch rate at 94.4%.

Julio now finds himself on a high powered offense and taking the role of Corey Davis. Based on last years metrics, Julio should hopefully see an increase in catchable targets from 75% to 81%, target share from 20% to 24.3%, and will be an decent upgrade over Davis, who averaged a 70% catch rate (WR34).

On top of Jones obvious talent, the Titans went all in on him, making him the 2nd highest paid WR in football. The Titans will surely have him heavily involved and with AJ Brown and Derrick Henry threatening defenses, it's going to be a challenge for Coordinators to figure out how to stop all 3 which could open up opportunity for Jones to flourish in this offense. If you decide to go RB/RB off the bat, Jones could prove to be quite the value in the 4th round and still has top 5 WR upside.

 

32 - Washington Football Team

JD McKissic - RB Consensus Rank: RB47 ADP: 13.09

JD McKissic was an extremely overlooked fantasy RB all year in 2020 and he continues to be in 2021, coming in as the consensus RB47. Based on his rankings this year, you'd think his campaign last year was atrocious, however, he finished as the RB24 in half PPR and RB17 in full PPR.

McKissic is a target machine in Washington, finishing the year as the RB1 with 110 targets, 80 catches (RB2), and 589 receiving yards (RB2). He also had the 2nd highest receiving opportunity share of any RB in football at 19.8% and averaged fantasy owners 12 points a game, a pretty good stat line by any measure. He's basically a mid range WR2 you can plug in your RB spot if you end up depleted at the position.

This year, he stays with the same team and coaching staff and has less competition at the position outside of Antonio Gibson, who will get the majority of the rush attempts. In standard, McKissic is far less valuable, but in half and full PPR, it's hard not to roll the dice on a RB that gets SO much receiving work, especially when you can snag him in the 13th round. If Gibson misses any time this year and McKissic get ALL the backfield work, you could have yourself a RB1 on your hands.

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